Trump says the US may strike Iran's Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site and rules out using a nuclear weapon

An orange GBU-43/B MOAB bomb on a metal cradle inside a hangar at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, in 2003 (file photo). — File photo: a GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb (MOAB) is prepared for a test at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida, on 11 March 2003. It does not show Iran or Pickaxe Mountain. Photograph: U.S. Department of Defense via Wikimedia Commons, public domain.

President Donald Trump said the United States may have to strike Pickaxe Mountain, a deeply buried site near Iran's Natanz nuclear complex, and for the first time explicitly ruled out using a nuclear weapon in the war on Iran. "We may have to go there," Trump told Newsmax in an interview published on Thursday 15 October, the Jerusalem Post reported. "We'll take a shot at that one. We'll knock it out fast." On nuclear weapons, he said: "I wouldn't use nuclear. We don't have to," according to Al Jazeera.

The interview followed reports on Thursday that the White House and Pentagon had prepared plans to use the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the MOAB or "mother of all bombs," against targets in Iran if Trump orders it. Trump did not say whether he had authorised its use.

What Trump said

Pickaxe Mountain: Trump said the US is looking at the site, which Al Jazeera described as a facility Tehran is believed to be hiding deep under layers of granite.
Nuclear weapons: "I wouldn't use nuclear. We don't have to. We're the greatest nuclear power in the world," he said. Al Jazeera described it as his first definitive statement on the question.
The MOAB: "The mother of all bombs is not nuclear," Trump said. "It's not nuclear at all. This is just an extremely large bomb." He did not say whether he had approved it for use in Iran.
Ground troops: asked about troops on the ground, he said, according to Al Jazeera: "No, I don't see that, I don't see it."
The war's end: "The Iran war will be over very soon," Trump said, adding that Iran was negotiating with the US. "They've asked us to please stop. And we do, because we're negotiating with them," he said, the Jerusalem Post reported.

What the strike plans reportedly include

CNN reported on Thursday that US strike plans include the MOAB, citing multiple US officials who said the plans called for it to be used against Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites, including Pickaxe Mountain, the Jerusalem Post reported. Sources familiar with the matter told CBS News that the White House and Pentagon had prepared plans to use the bomb on military sites in Iran if Trump ordered it.

"We do not comment on sensitive military plans that may or may not exist. President Trump keeps all options on the table to ensure that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon," a White House spokesperson told CBS News. A Pentagon official said the department "plans for a wide range of operational scenarios."

Why the weapon and the target do not obviously match

The MOAB is built to explode a few metres above the ground and send a blast across a wide surface area, experts told Al Jazeera. Pickaxe Mountain is the opposite kind of target: a facility buried deep underground. According to several sources cited by the Jerusalem Post, the MOAB likely would be unable to reach that deep. "Its purpose is to generate an exceptionally powerful blast across a surface area," military analyst Elijah Magnier told Al Jazeera, adding that there is doubt it would be effective against deeply buried nuclear installations.

WatchfulEye's read: two different things are being reported together. One is a named target, Pickaxe Mountain, which Trump has now put on the record himself. The other is a weapon, the MOAB, that the reported plans tie to energy infrastructure as well as nuclear sites, and that is designed for targets on the surface. Reading the MOAB reports as a plan to destroy Pickaxe Mountain with that bomb goes beyond what the sources say. What the record does support is narrower: the US has plans that include the MOAB, the president has named a deeply buried nuclear site as a possible target, and he has not said which weapon, or when.

The timing question

CBS News reported that Trump said last week the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections on 3 November. Several of Trump's advisers told CNN it remains unclear whether he will change his mind before Election Day, the Jerusalem Post reported. Al Jazeera said Trump's comments appeared to support speculation that another phase of the war is coming, likely after the midterms. Iran has vowed to respond to escalatory strikes by targeting oil and digital infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf states, Al Jazeera reported.

Open questions

Will the White House or Pentagon say which weapon, if any, is planned for Pickaxe Mountain?
Does Trump's statement that the US would not strike before the midterms still stand?
How will Iran respond, and will the talks Trump described produce anything public before 3 November?