Public record
The analyses
Our first research report, followed by the latest analyses. What the sources said, and what they did not.
The AI doom debate and who funds the evaluators
Six days from a resignation post to a presidential call. The relationships behind the proposed oversight system.
7 OCT 2026Iraq's devaluation gives Baghdad more dinars per oil dollar. It does not add a barrel.
Iraq's official dollar rate for the public went from 1,320 to 1,520 dinars on 7 October, the first change since 2023. Each oil dollar the Finance Ministry sells now brings 1,500 dinars instead of 1,300. Exports were still more than a third below pre-war levels in August, and the cost shifts to importers and households.
7 OCT 2026Trump's 'tax-free' dyed diesel order defers the federal tax. It does not cancel it.
The 5 October order lets dyed diesel onto highways without federal penalties through 31 December, if Treasury finds the legal authority within five days. The federal tax is deferred, not forgiven. State taxes and bans still apply, and the order adds no fuel.
7 OCT 2026Ebola reaches Kenya: what one imported case changes about Congo's outbreak
A Kenyan man who had lived in Congo for seven years flew into Nairobi from Kampala on 3 October 2026 and died late on 5 October. By 7 October, the health ministry had identified 57 contacts and placed 10 of them in quarantine. Uganda recorded cases earlier in the outbreak and was declared free of the disease in August. France reported an imported case, and Germany and the Netherlands have treated patients evacuated from Congo.
7 OCT 2026Russia Irkutsk plague: lab worker dies; officials deny cases
A laboratory technician at the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute died last week of pneumonia whose cause Russian health officials have not named. Russia told the WHO that no plague case had been recorded in Irkutsk. The United States urged Moscow to share more information.
7 OCT 2026Hormuz tanker attacks, 1–6 October: nine UKMTO warnings, then On Peace
UKMTO issued nine warnings of tankers struck in or near the Strait of Hormuz between 1 and 6 October 2026 without naming a ship. Governments, owners and a security firm have named seven, including the Panama-flagged On Peace, where India says 12 of 19 crew were injured on 6 October.
5 OCT 2026Grain ship sinks in Romania's Black Sea economic zone as Ukraine blames Russian drones
The Royad Mammadov sank inside Romania's economic zone on 5 October 2026. Early the next day, drones hit two other ships inside Bulgaria's economic zone, Bulgaria says, sinking one; its crew is missing and Bulgaria has called off the search. Bulgaria's prime minister says the drones were either Russian or Ukrainian but it is not yet clear where they came from.
5 OCT 2026Saudi-led jets back Yemen's offensive to retake the Bab al-Mandeb coast from the Houthis
The government says its forces hold the coast the Houthis took in September; those claims are not independently verified. Pakistan and Turkey have agreed to send forces to Saudi Arabia, and the Houthis are squeezing Taiz.
5 OCT 2026Brazil election first round results: Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 47.03%, Lula has 45.16%, and neither passes 50%
Neither candidate passed half the valid vote. The TSE lists Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula for the 25 October second round.
5 OCT 2026Mekelle retaken: Ethiopian forces hold Tigray's capital after the TPLF withdraws and calls it temporary
The TPLF left Tigray's capital without a fight and says it will keep fighting from elsewhere. The bigger question now sits on Ethiopia's borders.
1 OCT 2026Russia hit Trypilska. Parts of Kyiv had emergency power cuts.
Generating equipment at the Trypilska thermal power plant near Kyiv was damaged in a Russian attack on 30 September, its operator said. The grid operator applied emergency power cuts in parts of Kyiv and three regions.
30 SEP 2026Police send Grenfell fire files on 54 people and 20 organisations to prosecutors
The Metropolitan Police asked the Crown Prosecution Service on 30 September to consider charges including corporate manslaughter and gross negligence manslaughter over the 2017 fire that killed 72 people. No one has been charged.
30 SEP 2026Putin put German retailer Metro's Russian business under the temporary management of a company owned by its Russia chief.
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Monday 28 September 2026 placing Metro Cash & Carry LLC, which runs the German chain's wholesale stores in Russia, and two other Metro companies, Metro Warehouse Noginsk LLC and Retail Property 5 LLC, under the temporary management of JSC UK Torg RUS, according to the decree as reported by Meduza. The Kremlin published the order that afternoon. Reuters, Bloomberg and AP reported the transfer the same day.
29 SEP 2026A Russian drone hit Ukraine's National Academy of Sciences in central Kyiv, killing two people.
A Russian drone struck the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in central Kyiv on Monday 28 September 2026, killing two people, Reuters reported, citing emergency services. One of the dead was recovered from under the rubble later that evening. The 19th-century building stands near the German embassy, the National Opera and St Volodymyr's Cathedral, the Guardian reported.
28 SEP 2026USS Theodore Roosevelt leaves San Diego for the Middle East to relieve USS George Washington.
The aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt left San Diego on Sunday 27 September 2026 for an extended deployment to the Middle East, USNI News reported. A defense official confirmed to USNI News that the carrier had begun its planned deployment. The Roosevelt strike group is expected to move to U.S. Central Command and relieve the Japan-based carrier USS George Washington, which entered the U.S. 5th Fleet area in mid-August, USNI News said.
27 SEP 2026Serbia's President Aleksandar Vučić resigns to run for prime minister. A parliamentary election is set for 25 October.
Aleksandar Vučić resigned as president of Serbia on Sunday 27 September 2026 to lead his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) into an early parliamentary election on 25 October, the Guardian reported. "I am resigning the duty of the president of the republic," Vučić said, reading the text of his resignation. The constitution bars him from a third presidential term, and his second five-year term would otherwise have ended in May next year, the Guardian said.
27 SEP 2026Five men arrested near RAF Fairford on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. The Guardian reports explosives were found in three vans.
Five men arrested near RAF Fairford on 27 September 2026 are being held on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act, counter-terrorism police said. The Guardian reported explosives were found in three vans; police have not publicly described what was found.
25 SEP 2026UN investigators find reasonable grounds that US strikes on a Minab school and a Lamerd sports centre were war crimes, and that Iran committed crimes against humanity in its protest crackdown.
A UN-mandated investigation has put two sets of alleged crimes in one report. On Thursday 17 September 2026, the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission on the Islamic Republic of Iran said it had reasonable grounds to believe the United States committed war crimes in two strikes on 28 February, the first day of the US-Israeli war on Iran: Tomahawk missiles on the Shajareh Tayyebeh Primary School in Minab, and Precision Strike Missiles over a sports centre and residential streets in Lamerd. The same report found that Iran's government committed crimes against humanity in crushing the protests that began on 28 December 2025.
25 SEP 2026Oil transfers off Oman have hit their limit. LSEG puts supertanker rates at a record $1.27 million a day.
Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman for crude from inside the Strait of Hormuz have reached their limits after Saudi Arabia diverted exports from the Red Sea, Reuters reported on 25 September 2026, citing trade sources and analysts. The demand for supertankers drove the daily time-charter rate for a very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying oil from the Middle East to China to a record $1.27 million on Monday 21 September, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.
24 SEP 2026France will send troops to Yanbu. The oil route needed cover.
French President Emmanuel Macron said France will send soldiers, radar systems and defence systems to protect Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil-export port of Yanbu, the outlet of the East-West crude pipeline.
24 SEP 2026They said no fuel, no tickets. The UAE stopped the flights.
The United Arab Emirates' General Civil Aviation Authority suspended all flights by Iranian airlines to and from the country until further notice, citing the U.S. ban.
24 SEP 2026Hormuz shipping statistics 2026
EIA and UN OCHA figures: Hormuz oil 21.6 million b/d in 4Q25, 4.9 in 2Q26. Iran exports, Bab el-Mandeb, Yemen. Dated and linked.
23 SEP 2026They declared a defensive war. The north lost its flights.
Reuters reported fighting and a Tigrayan defensive-war declaration. Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to three northern airports.
12 SEP 2026They took Mayun. The mouth of the strait.
Al Jazeera: Iran-aligned Houthis seized Mayun/Perim at Bab al-Mandeb.
10 SEP 2026They took Mocha. The strait is twenty kilometers.
The Guardian, Al Jazeera, BBC and Reuters-linked reporting: Houthi forces took Mocha. Shipping closure is not established.
9 SEP 2026Fachin took the fake-news brief. October is close.
STF Portaria GP nº 189 revoked Moraes's designation on the fake-news inquiry; Fachin took the brief.
8 SEP 2026They hit five more. Oil near one hundred.
AP and Politico report a second CENTCOM tanker round; AP adds an IRGC warning and Brent approaching one hundred.
8 SEP 2026They named four Saudi cities. Seventy-three were wounded.
A Houthi wave named Abha, Jizan, Najran and Khamis Mushait. Saudi authorities said seventy-three were wounded; the Energy Ministry reported fires and temporary stoppages.
6 SEP 2026They said forty-four percent. The firewall is the story.
AfD won a reported 44 percent in Saxony-Anhalt. The governing outcome is unresolved; the postwar firewall is the test.
5 SEP 2026They hit three tankers. One was near Kharg.
5 September 2026. US Central Command: American forces struck three Iran-linked oil tankers after Iranian forces targeted US Navy warships. BBC and CNBC report at least one was disabled near Kharg Island; a third was destroyed in the Gulf of Oman.
4 SEP 2026US diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon, AAA says. Trump says he is looking "very seriously" at an export ban.
AAA data show U.S. diesel hit a record $6.53 a gallon on 22 September 2026. Trump is looking "very seriously" at an export ban; allies warn against it.
4 SEP 2026He named Sea Lion. London said unwavering.
Milei named Sea Lion, Navitas and Rockhopper and threatened sanctions on Falklands oil drillers. Downing Street said UK support is unwavering.
4 SEP 2026They named the fields. They did not name Beijing's bill.
China lent Venezuela at least $60bn in oil-backed loans through 2015; analysts estimate at least $10bn is still owed as NABEP is granted 17 oil fields.
30 AUG 2026They named Larak. They did not name a sweep.
30 August 2026. US Central Command said US forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after IRGC forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz.
30 AUG 2026They said one hundred years. She said twenty-five.
Al Jazeera, TRT World and ABC Australia: 25-year bilateral project, sovereignty retained, about $19 a barrel. Friday's official: 100 years and 55 percent.
29 AUG 2026They said sixty-five billion. She said it revives the economy.
CNBC, AP and BBC: majority U.S. control of more than 65 billion barrels. Rodriguez: revives the economy.
28 AUG 2026They named a bank. It was not Chinese.
CNBC: Treasury moved against Banque Misr UAE over about $1.8 billion for some 100 companies. Named Taeedi and Kameng Trading. Outcast still has major Chinese banks at zero.
28 AUG 2026They said the oil was back. Qatar extended the gas.
Bloomberg: QatarEnergy extended LNG force majeure another month. Kpler via Reuters: seven commodity vessels on Thursday against a 10-day average of 15. Traders told Bloomberg about 6 to 8 million barrels a day of crude was crossing Hormuz.
28 AUG 2026They counted twelve. The convoy report counted none.
Al Jazeera/AFP: twelve at a fuel market. Reuters prior: convoy, no Chadian casualties. US embassy also accused SAF.
28 AUG 2026They said preparing to open. He named the war.
Al Jazeera: preparing to open. Reuters: Rezaei named the war. The Oman corridor is not the central channel.
27 AUG 2026Traders said seventy percent. Asia imported slightly less.
Traders told Bloomberg Kuwait and Qatar were back to 70 percent of pre-war oil shipments. Kpler data cited by Reuters columnist Clyde Russell: Asia's August crude arrivals expected at 23.12 million b/d, against 23.36 million in July.
27 AUG 2026They said beyond critical. The Pentagon said false.
AP exclusive. Officials: Europe Patriots beyond critical. Pentagon: false. NATO: simply not the case.
27 AUG 2026UKMTO named Khasab. JMIC named the ship: AL SALAM II.
UKMTO 121-26. Khasab, Oman. Unknown projectile. Fire out. Crew safe. JMIC named the ship: AL SALAM II.
25 AUG 2026They said the mines were gone. Muscat and Tehran scheduled a sweep.
Trump / Navy (Axios 12:28 ET): mines removed and/or detonated from international waters / TSS. Oman MFA + Badr / Araghchi (CNBC 13:16 ET): joint project to clear mines; temporary corridor not yet announced. Axios: no deal.
25 AUG 2026They counted the countries, not the missing barrels.
Reuters/IEA: conflict-affected countries produced about 45 million bpd based on 2025 output, more than 43 percent of global supply. That is exposure, not barrels offline. The same Reuters report: current Gulf disruption about 5 to 7 million bpd (analysts' estimates).
25 AUG 2026They said half. The tracker counted fifteen.
AFP/Kpler: Feb 95, after 1 Mar 10, June 36, 8 Jul-22 Aug avg 15. A sixth, not half. IMO: 6,000 sailors and 500 ships still stuck. Evacuation of more than 11,000 suspended. At least 20 dead.
24 AUG 2026They named the miles. They did not name the ship.
UKMTO Warning 120-26. Unnamed oil tanker, unknown projectile, 9nm NE of Ash Shishah. Engine room disabled. Crew safe. Environment unknown. Ship and shooter not named.
24 AUG 2026They named both sides. They did not bring a vote.
The U.S. urged beefed-up U.N. sanctions on SAF and RSF; Boulos said a U.S. draft would expand the arms embargo to all of Sudan. AP: at least 59,000 killed, some 13 million displaced. AP quoted the draft in part and did not report a vote.
24 AUG 2026They named the operation. They did not name the banks.
Bessent launched Operation Economic Outcast. First-round designations; China not exempt vs major Chinese banks not named.
24 AUG 2026They hit the transformer. Then the water.
IOM, as reported by Al Jazeera on 20 August 2026: more than 200,000 newly displaced across Sudan's Kordofan since late 2025; RSF drone attacks on el-Obeid's power transformer and water.
22 AUG 2026Two dead. The warning still said unidentified.
USNI named three hulls in the Strait of Hormuz in August 2026. Two mariners dead. Lloyd's weekly tanker transits 99, then 91, then an incomplete 73.
19 AUG 2026They say the southern lane is moving 10 million barrels.
Officials said 15–20 ships / ~10 mbpd on an Oman-coast corridor. Friday public AIS in the narrows: 5 tankers, 2 underway. We confirmed they said it, not the 10.
18 AUG 2026The outbound lane got hit. The map called it ours.
Tuesday 18 August 2026: a hit on the outbound lane, a rate, and a map. UKMTO, an unattributed projectile, supertanker earnings of nearly $510,000 a day Gulf-to-China on Baltic Exchange data reported by Bloomberg, and a map that names Hormuz U.S. territory.
17 AUG 2026The deadline expired. The tankers had already stopped.
The 60-day U.S.-Iran window ended August 17. Hormuz traffic was already in single digits. The story is not a failed deal. It is a waterway that never reopened.
11 MAY 2026Calm aboard is not the same as contained on shore.
The Hondius hantavirus outbreak, held to the May 2026 record: WHO DON599's case count, the Swiss Andes case, the Johannesburg death, and what it was not.
30 APR 2026Five percent of a mark is not five percent of cash.
California's billionaire-tax initiative 25-0024A1 explained: the one-time 5% excise, valuation rules, LAO/DOF estimates, and why a mark is not a clearing price.
15 APR 2026Oil is up. It is not spiking.
Day 3 of the U.S. Iran blockade: oil up but not spiking, the S&P's first close above 7,000, and why markets priced a new energy order instead of a crisis.
