US politics · Public record
Democrats begin 2028 presidential race after midterm victories
Democrats are entering what could become one of their most crowded and unpredictable presidential primaries in decades following sweeping victories in the midterm elections on Nov 3. No Democrat has emerged as a clear favorite in a field that could attract dozens of contenders, while the party remains divided over whether to move to the centre or further left.
What happened in the midterms
Democrats won sweeping victories on Tuesday, Nov 3, when voters delivered a sharp rebuke to US President Donald Trump and his agenda, according to Channel News Asia. The victories will intensify discussions within both parties about how to win over an electorate unhappy with the country's direction.
One of the most high-profile progressive wins came in the Michigan Senate contest, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed easily defeated Republican Mike Rogers, becoming the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. Exit polls on Tuesday showed that key constituencies of the Republican coalition, including younger voters, Hispanics and some Black men, had deserted Republicans.
Vance acknowledged on Wednesday that the war in Iran, which Trump launched in February and is deeply unpopular among Americans, had cost Republicans the election. Trump made a similar acknowledgement on Tuesday night.
The 2028 race takes shape
Potential Democratic candidates are positioning themselves for a race that strategists expect to begin in earnest now that the midterms are over. No Democrat has emerged as a clear favorite in a field that could attract dozens of contenders, while Republicans have a smaller group of widely discussed candidates, led by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to succeed Trump, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.
Several potential candidates have either acknowledged considering a White House run or declined to rule one out. They include former Vice President Kamala Harris, who lost to Trump in 2024, Governors Gavin Newsom of California and Andy Beshear of Kentucky, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, and US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, a leading progressive voice.
Reuters contacted representatives for nine of the party's most prominent potential contenders. None confirmed a 2028 run. Democratic strategist Scott Ferson said the party's presidential primary could attract a huge number of candidates, stating there are at least 30 Democrats who are asking people close to them whether they should run.
Party divisions and strategy
Despite their resounding victories on Tuesday, Democrats enter the 2028 campaign still divided over whether to tack to the centre or move further left on issues ranging from healthcare and taxes to policing and foreign policy. Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik said both progressives and moderates will claim vindication in their ideological approaches, ensuring an intense internal battle over the party's future.
Sosnik said on Wednesday that all kinds of wings of the Democratic Party can find affirmation in the results. He said the party has not had a proper debate about its philosophy and direction since 2016, when Hillary Clinton won the nomination against a spirited challenge by US Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who describes himself as a democratic socialist.
Nine days after the Nov 3 elections, several prospective Democratic candidates, including Buttigieg and another progressive, US Representative Ro Khanna of California, are scheduled to attend a gathering in Denver hosted by Majority Democrats. The group, backed largely by moderate Democrats and billionaire donor Steve Mandel, advocates for younger party leaders and a party platform that is more centrist.
Republican challenges
Republican candidates will face a different challenge: how to distance themselves from Trump after Tuesday's repudiation of his policies. They need to broaden their appeal beyond the president's base while avoiding a break with the populist Make America Great Again movement that has come to define the party.
Trump, who has dominated the political landscape for a decade, may be reluctant to yield centre stage, and his continued influence with MAGA followers could complicate the path of the party's next standard bearer. Republican strategist Matt Dole said Vance is in a particularly difficult position because he has less freedom than other potential 2028 Republican contenders to put daylight between himself and Trump, as his role traditionally involves defending the president and his policies.
Vance has said there is a chance he will not run, citing family considerations, while Rubio has said he has no plans at this time to seek the presidency. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican presidential nomination against Trump in 2024, has declined to rule out another White House bid. Other Republicans viewed as potential candidates include Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders and US Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.
What to watch
- Whether any of the nine prominent Democratic contenders contacted by Reuters formally announce a 2028 run in the coming weeks
- The outcome of the Denver gathering hosted by Majority Democrats nine days after Nov 3, and whether it produces a centrist platform challenge to progressive candidates
- Whether Vice President JD Vance or Secretary of State Marco Rubio formally enter the Republican race, and how they position themselves relative to Trump's policies
- Whether Trump attempts to maintain influence over the Republican primary despite being constitutionally barred from a third term
What we don't know yet
- Which Democratic candidate, if any, will consolidate support from both progressive and moderate wings of the party
- Whether the war in Iran that Trump launched in February will remain a defining issue in the Republican primary
- How many of the at least 30 Democrats considering a run will actually enter the race