US foreign policy / Asia · Public record
Brookings analyst warns Russia and China may act before Trump term ends
A senior fellow at the Brookings Institution has said Russia and China may become more aggressive in the next two years if they conclude President Trump is on his way out after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. The assessment comes as depleted U.S. missile stocks and reduced naval presence in Asia may signal constrained military capacity.
What Brookings said about geopolitical risk
Robert Kagan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told CNBC that Russia and China could become more aggressive over the next two years if they conclude that President Donald Trump is politically weakened and on his way out after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. Kagan said both countries may feel that the time to move is in the next two years.
Kagan said the war with Iran had exposed how Washington has proved itself rather incapable militarily in terms of capacity, which would be critical in Asia. He said everybody can see how much U.S. stocks are depleted in terms of interceptors and missiles, which are of vital interest in the Asian theater.
Military capacity constraints from Iran conflict
Congressional Budget Office reports have estimated that the conflict depleted as much as two-thirds of U.S. missile-defense interceptors since June 2025, largely because of efforts to defend Israel against Iranian attacks. According to those reports, this could leave the U.S. with constrained inventories for several years.
Kagan said the deployment of three U.S. aircraft carriers to the Middle East had reduced the U.S. naval presence available in Asia, potentially giving China more room to act assertively in the region. He said Trump has no real interest in confronting China, which is going to lead China to be even more aggressive.
Taiwan arms packages and China tensions
In December, Trump approved an $11 billion arms package for Taiwan, but later held back on a second package worth about $14 billion, calling it a bargaining chip in talks with China. China claims self-governing Taiwan as its territory.
While Washington does not have a mutual defense treaty with the island, U.S. law requires it to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself. Former CIA Director William Burns said in 2023 that Chinese President Xi Jinping had instructed the military to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, while stressing that this did not mean Xi had decided to launch an invasion that year or at all.
Trilateral summit discussions
The U.S., China and Russia are discussing a possible trilateral summit between Trump, Xi and President Vladimir Putin at the APEC Leaders meeting in Shenzhen later this month. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Wednesday that Beijing was in communication with relevant parties regarding a meeting between the three heads of state, although no agenda has been announced.
Putin had reportedly floated the idea of a three-way summit with Trump and Xi in October to discuss ending the war in Ukraine, without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the table.
What to watch
- Whether Russia or China take assertive military or territorial action in the next two years
- Whether the trilateral summit between Trump, Xi and Putin takes place at the APEC Leaders meeting in Shenzhen later this month, and what agenda is announced
- Whether Trump releases the $14 billion Taiwan arms package or continues to hold it back
- How quickly U.S. missile-defense interceptor inventories are replenished in coming years
What we don't know yet
- Whether Trump will attend the APEC summit in Shenzhen and meet with Xi and Putin
- What specific military actions Russia or China might take in the next two years
- How long it will take to restore U.S. missile-defense interceptor stocks to pre-conflict levels