US / South Asia · Public record
Democrats' midterm win may reshape US approach to India trade and immigration
Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the November 2026 midterms, setting up potential pushback on Trump administration policies that have strained relations with India. Analysts say the new Congress could increase scrutiny of trade protectionism and immigration restrictions, though Trump retains significant authority over foreign policy.
What happened
US Democrats scored a resounding midterm victory in November 2026 and took control of both chambers of Congress. The Republican administration led by Donald Trump is set for a new level of scrutiny until the end of Trump's term.
Ties between New Delhi and Washington are strained by a stalled trade agreement, restrictions on immigration, and disagreement over India buying Russian oil and weapons. The US granted an oil ban waiver in March 2026 and Trump waved some of the Russia sanctions in October.
India and the US have yet to formalize the interim framework discussed by Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February. The two nations remain at odds over market access and other trade commitments.
The Trump administration tightened H-1B visa rules, including imposing a $100,000 payment for certain new petitions. India has objected to US supplying weapons to Pakistan, including the $686 million sale of advanced military tech for Pakistan's F-16 jets.
Why this is happening
Trump is likely to face pushback on his controversial foreign policy, which saw the US alienate most of its allies and get entangled in yet another unpopular war in the Middle East, according to Deutsche Welle. The Trump administration has also taken a series of confrontations with India.
Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, founder of the Mantraya Institute of Strategic Studies, expects the new Congress to apply increased scrutiny of protectionist measures pushed by the Trump administration. The US lawmakers could push for stronger trade oversight and clearer standards for environmental and labor issues, she told Deutsche Welle.
During a congressional vote on Russian sanctions in September, a substantial number of Democrats joined Republican lawmakers to endorse trade restrictions against Moscow. The war in Iran adds another dimension, as any new escalation could affect energy exports from the Middle East and make India more vulnerable due to its need for high oil imports.
Harsh Pant of the Observer Research argues that the US president retains considerable leverage over foreign policy despite the Republican setback, and that the India-US partnership has traditionally enjoyed bipartisan support. Pant told Deutsche Welle that he does not think India will be one of those issues on which the White House and Congress are likely to clash.
Who is affected
For India, whose largest export market is the US, increased congressional scrutiny of protectionist measures could offer some breathing room, according to D'Souza. She emphasized that the fundamental pillars of the India-US strategic partnership are expected to remain strong and the long-term goal of deepening economic ties is likely to continue.
The administration's tightening of H-1B visa rules has alarmed Indian professionals and tech companies that rely on the visa program to secure jobs in the US. Rajkrishna Iyer, a California-licensed immigration lawyer, believes the new, steep fee for some H-1B applications will be challenged in court.
New Delhi is still by far the biggest buyer of Russia's arms exports, which irritates Washington. Navtej Sarna, a former Indian ambassador to the US and Israel, expects Washington to become a more contested place, with greater congressional pushback on issues that divide India and the US.
Amitabh Mattoo, dean of the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, told Deutsche Welle that the president could double down and adopt an even harder line towards New Delhi if he comes to believe that Indians, particularly sections of the diaspora, played a role, directly or indirectly, in his party's defeat.
What to watch
- Whether Congress pushes for stronger trade oversight and clearer standards for environmental and labor issues affecting India
- Whether federal courts strike down the $100,000 H-1B visa fee as unreasonable
- Whether any new escalation in the war in Iran affects energy exports from the Middle East
- Whether Trump adopts a harder line towards New Delhi in response to the midterm defeat
What we don't know yet
- Whether the new Congress will force changes in the dispute over India's purchasing Russian energy
- Whether Trump will seek compromises at home or take a harder line elsewhere in response to congressional resistance
- Whether the interim trade framework discussed by Trump and Modi in February will be formalized