They said half. The tracker counted fifteen.
WatchfulEye ยท
The conventional narrative is that the southern lane restored half the oil. Tuesday's public record is a tracker count and a leftover that is still inside the Gulf.
AFP 25 Aug 2026 citing Kpler and IMO / analysis 42637. Commodity-carrier transits Feb 95, after 1 Mar 10, June 36, 8 Jul-22 Aug avg 15. Not a satellite image.
What changed
Live on this site, 19 August, two unnamed U.S. officials told Axios the Oman-coast corridor was running 15 to 20 tankers a day, about 10 million barrels, roughly half of pre-war volume. That page is still live. It is not this page.
AFP on 25 August, carrying an analysis of Kpler data, prints a different series. Commodity-carrier transits through the Strait of Hormuz: 95 a day in February, before the closure. 10 a day after 1 March. 36 a day during the June agreement. Then 15 a day averaged between the resumption of hostilities on 8 July and 22 August.
Fifteen is not 15-to-20 and 10 million barrels. Fifteen against 95 is about a sixth, not half.
The same AFP product splits the lane. During the relatively calm window 17 June to 7 July: nine ships a day on the Iranian (northern) route, eight on the Omani (southern) route, the rest unidentified or on the old IMO corridor. Since 8 July, Kpler says two-thirds of transits have gone dark - disabled transponders, jammed signals, or missing satellite imagery - against less than one percent before the war.
The human leftover is not on the corridor page. The IMO told AFP some 6,000 sailors and 500 ships have remained stuck in the Gulf since the beginning of the conflict. A June effort to evacuate more than 11,000 seafarers was suspended after an attack on a vessel. Over six months, at least 20 sailors and dockworkers have been killed in incidents or attacks in the region, according to the IMO.
Barron's carried the same AFP headline into the API at 02:43 UTC 25 August (article custom_0cab32d2bdb8, classified CRITICAL). WatchfulEye analysis 42637 is the first analyze of that row on this pull. The API body is a Google News stub. The checkable numbers are the AFP product, not the analyzer's web-pass mix.
This page is not UKMTO Warning 120-26. The 24 August unnamed tanker 9 nautical miles northeast of Ash Shishah, crew reported safe, is already live. This page does not recap it.
The record
Analysis 42637. Article custom_0cab32d2bdb8. Source: Barron's, published 25 August 2026, 02:43 UTC, classified CRITICAL. Snapshot grade B/2, confidence moderate, corroboration multiply corroborated. Underlying wire: AFP, issued 25 August 2026, as carried by France24. Data attributed by AFP to Kpler (transits, dark share, route split) and to the IMO (sailors, ships, deaths, suspended evacuation).
How it is being framed
Half-restored frame. 15-20 hulls and 10 million barrels. That is the 19 August officials' claim, already on this site.
Count frame. 95, then 10, then 36, then 15. That is Kpler as carried by AFP, through 22 August.
Dark frame. Two-thirds unknown since 8 July. That is a visibility claim, not a barrel claim.
Oman-versus-Iran frame. Nine north, eight south, in the calm window. Tehran's approved lane is the northern one. The southern one runs between the Omani coast and a 1,400-square-kilometre Guards "danger zone" where mines may be present, AFP says.
Stranded frame. 6,000 sailors, 500 ships, evacuation suspended, at least 20 dead. That is the IMO talking to AFP.
Those five jobs are not the same story. The half-restored frame will keep traveling. The series, the dark share, and the leftover inside the Gulf are the ones that can be checked.
Reporting versus inference
Reporting is: AFP published a Kpler series on 25 August with those four period averages; AFP published a 9-versus-8 route split for 17 June-7 July; AFP published two-thirds dark since 8 July; the IMO told AFP 6,000 sailors and 500 ships remain stuck, a >11,000 evacuation was suspended after an attack, and at least 20 sailors and dockworkers have been killed; Barron's API row custom_0cab32d2bdb8 matches that headline; analysis 42637 is this pull's first analyze of that row; the 19 August officials' 15-20 / ~10 mbpd claim remains live on a different URL; tonight's Ash Shishah warning is a different URL.
Inference, labeled as such: a "half restored" corridor and a 15-versus-95 tracker average cannot both be a description of the same visible waterway unless the officials were counting barrels the tracker was not, or counting a capacity the AIS cannot see because two-thirds of transits are dark. We do not have a primary Kpler table. We do not have the officials' voyage list. Do not read this page as WatchfulEye confirming 15 hulls, or 10 million barrels, or 6,000 people. We confirmed that AFP attributed those figures to Kpler and the IMO.
Do not collapse this page into Warning 120-26. Crew-safe, unnamed, 9 nautical miles northeast of Ash Shishah is already live.
What may follow
Reasoning, not a forecast.
If the count frame is right, the next checkable fact is whether the post-22 August daily print stays near 15, or prints the officials' 15-20 as a barrel figure rather than a hull figure. If the dark frame is right, the next fact is whether the two-thirds share holds on a Kpler or UKMTO product, not in a six-month wrap. If the stranded frame is right, the next IMO print revises 6,000 and 500, or names a restarted evacuation. If the Oman-versus-Iran frame is right, the next visible transits cluster south, north, or stay unknown. We do not have a 23-24 August daily table in this snapshot.
What remains unresolved
Whether AFP's 95 February commodity carriers is the same Kpler cut as the ~130 pre-war figure on the 17 August page. Whether 15 transits can be reconciled with 10 million barrels. Which of the dark transits are the Oman lane. Whether the 6,000 and 500 are still current as of 25 August, or a stock figure from earlier in the war. A hull name for tonight's Ash Shishah warning - that remains on the other page. A primary Kpler table. An IMO document, not an IMO quote.
Related analysis
They say the southern lane is moving 10 million barrels. https://watchfuleye.us/intelligence/hormuz-corridor - 19 August. Unnamed officials, 15-20 / ~10 mbpd. This page is the tracker series against that claim.
They named the miles. They did not name the hull. https://watchfuleye.us/intelligence/hormuz-ash-shishah - 24 August. UKMTO Warning 120-26. Different incident. Do not merge.
The deadline expired. The tankers had already stopped. https://watchfuleye.us/intelligence/hormuz-deadline - 17 August. Single-digit Sunday.
All public analyses https://watchfuleye.us/record
Corrections
If a source, a frame, or an inference on this page is wrong, we correct it here. contact@watchfuleye.us.
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