South Africa's ANC falls under a third in municipal elections

With most ballots counted after the Nov. 4 local elections, South Africa's African National Congress is on course for under a third of the national municipal vote - about 14 percentage points below its 2021 result - while remaining the largest party on the provisional tally. Figures are provisional and still moving; they are not a certified final national result.

On Nov. 6, with about 80-81% of votes counted, international and local reporting keyed to the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) results dashboard put the ANC near 31.8-32%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) near 24-25%, and former president Jacob Zuma's uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party near 9%. Al Jazeera, citing the commission a day earlier with more than 60% counted, had the ANC on about 32% and the DA on about 25% - the same band as the later, fuller count. Final results are expected around Sunday, Nov. 8.

Turnout was estimated at about 54.5% of roughly 29.2 million registered voters, or about 15.9 million ballots, up from about 46% in the pandemic-hit 2021 local elections (electoral commission figures via Al Jazeera, AFP and The Guardian).

Vote share is not council control

National percentage support is a useful aggregate. It is not the same as who leads a council, who controls a council outright, or whether Pretoria's national governing capacity has collapsed.

A Nov. 6 Citizen / Alberton Record write-up of the IEC dashboard at 13:38 (81% counted) made that split explicit: the ANC had 7,085,894 votes (31.8%), led in 75 councils, but controlled only 28 outright, with 1,986 seats so far. The DA had 5,374,574 votes (24.14%), led in 24 councils, and controlled 10. MK led in 13 and controlled three. Nineteen percent of votes were still outstanding at that timestamp. Later IEC-data visualizations (The Outlier; ESP) showed the national proportional-representation share still near 31.9% ANC / 24% DA with about 88% of voting districts in - still labeled provisional.

South Africa elects councils across hundreds of municipalities (The Guardian cites 257; The Outlier's IEC-data board lists 205 local councils plus eight metros, alongside district councils). A moving national aggregate must not be presented as a declared national winner, and a sub-third national share is not, by itself, proof that the ANC has lost every metro or that the 2024 national Government of National Unity has failed.

Metros - partial counts, coalition math ahead

Reporting across The Guardian, Reuters, Al Jazeera and AFP describes the same urban pattern while counts remain incomplete:

• Johannesburg. Partial counts and projections have the DA ahead of the ANC in the financial capital, where water and power cuts and refuse failures dominated the campaign. Exact shares vary by how much of the metro is counted; treat metro figures as provisional until the IEC declares.
• Cape Town. The DA is on course for an outright majority; its mayor, Geordin Hill-Lewis, has already claimed victory in contemporaneous reporting.
• eThekwini (Durban). MK has led in partial counts in Zuma's KwaZulu-Natal stronghold; whether it wins an outright majority is not yet settled.
• Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal. The Guardian reported the ANC was projected to lose its position as the largest party in both provinces on the municipal vote - again, on incomplete returns.

After declaration, councillors typically have about two weeks to elect mayors and form governments. Hung councils mean coalition bargains - including possible ANC-DA local deals that mirror, or clash with, the national partnership formed after the ANC lost its parliamentary majority in 2024.

What voters complained about

Agency reporting and The Guardian put the same grievances at the center of the campaign: unemployment, crime, corruption scandals, and failing municipal services - water, electricity, roads and refuse - the tier of government people encounter daily. The ANC has tended to poll worse in local elections than nationally; its 2021 municipal share was already a then-record low near 45-46%, and the 2024 national vote left it needing partners to govern.

Related context - AGOA (inference, not causation)

Separately, the U.S. move to end African Growth and Opportunity Act preferences for South Africa and Rwanda is related trade context, not a cause of the municipal result. Inference, not a finding: a weaker municipal mandate may shape how other capitals read Pretoria's bargaining position in any AGOA restoration talks. No reporting used here states that Washington cut AGOA because of these local results, or that voters cast ballots because of AGOA.

What is settled - and what is not

• Settled for news purposes (provisional): With a large majority of ballots counted on Nov. 6, multiple outlets and IEC-dashboard citations show the ANC on course under a third of the national municipal vote, roughly 14 points below 2021, still first nationally on the aggregate, with the DA second and MK third; turnout estimates near 54.5%; DA majority path in Cape Town; widespread expectation of hung metros and coalition talks.
• Attributed / still moving: Exact metro percentages, seat totals, and which parties will control Johannesburg, Tshwane, eThekwini and other hung councils.
• Not established: Certified final national share; that national PR share equals councils controlled; that the ANC has lost national governing capacity; any causal link from AGOA to the municipal vote (or the reverse).

Open questions

• What certified national and metro shares does the IEC declare, and how do they differ from the Nov. 6 provisional band?
• In which metros does a single party win an outright majority, and where do coalitions form within the post-declaration window?
• Does higher turnout than 2021 hold in the final certified figures, and how does it break down by metro versus rural councils?

Sources: Electoral Commission of South Africa results dashboard (https://results.elections.org.za/dashboards/lge/) - live JS feed; figures cited via Citizen/Alberton Record IEC dashboard readout at 13:38 Nov. 6 (81% counted; lead is not control), and IEC-data visualizations The Outlier / ESP (~88% voting districts); The Guardian, Nov. 6 - 80% counted, ANC 31.8%, DA 24.1%, MK 9.3%; Al Jazeera (AFP/Reuters) Nov. 5 - ~32% / >60% counted; Reuters via CNBC Africa and The Star Nov. 6 - 71-81% counted snapshots, ANC ~32% / DA ~25%; AFP via Jacaranda FM Nov. 6. All vote shares provisional until IEC certification.